Last week, I made some “bold” predictions for the upcoming NBA betting season. Well, now let’s take a look at the official futures and see where things stand, and where the smart bets will be as we approach the pre-season.
Starting with the top three, the Lakers are at 2:1 to win the title, the Cavaliers are at 10:3, and the Celtics are at 9:2. For those returns, I’d only consider betting the Lakers and the Celtics. I’ve said it before, but don’t let your infatuation with Shaq and Lebron skew your gambling judgment into making an ill-advised bet. This isn’t the Cavs’ year, and the return certainly isn’t high enough in your favor to take a chance on a major wager.
For almost a 5:1 return, the Celtics are a great bet, but I’d hedge with one of equal amount for the Lakers, too. That way, if you bet $200 between the teams and the Celtics win, you’re still up $250. If the Lakers win, you break even. It’s a smart bet if you want to take a chance on the Celtics and are willing to accept less of a payoff than an outright bet. And you can adjust the amounts accordingly.
How about a long shot? Are there any in the NBA? Probably not, although you probably could even consider the Magic a long shot at 8:1. I personally think they’re headed in the other direction this year. I’m not sold on Dwight Howard as the player that’ll lead these guys to the promised land.
And that brings us to Detroit. A 45:1 shot, which proves the odds-makers think about as highly as the Ben Gordon acquisition as I do. But for argument’s sake, let’s say Gordon is the missing piece, that last bolt of offense and energy, and the Pistons make another improbable run to the title, or at least the Finals. 45:1 is a huge payoff, and I would guess the line for them to make the finals falls somewhere around 14:1 (behind Cleveland, Boston and Orlando), which is still a nice chunk of change and well worth the risk.
Lost in all the discussion again are the Spurs, which is how they seem to like it every year. I was a huge fan of them early on last year, only to see them inexplicably fall apart in the postseason, and there’s no reason to believe they’ll figure it out and turn it around against an improved Lakers team. The Spurs are at 15:2 according to the latest nba odds, which are lower return odds than the Magic, and San Antonio is in the easier conference this year. I know that hasn’t been said about the West in a long time, but if you look at the top 4 teams in each conference, the East appears tougher on paper.